The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026 finds that the world is no longer on a path to limit warming to 1.5°C without going past it first. We rely here on the summary published on October 21, 2026 by PBL, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, whose researchers contribute to the report. That page gives projected warming of 2.8°C under current policies and 2.6°C if all national pledges are delivered. This article sets out those figures and what they mean.
What does the report project?
According to the PBL summary, warming could reach these levels this century:
- Current policies: 2.8°C, and still rising afterward
- All nationally determined contributions (NDCs) delivered: 2.6°C, which the page says is worse than last year’s projection
- All NDCs plus net-zero targets: 2.1°C, the most optimistic case
An NDC is a country’s pledge under the Paris Agreement. The definition is general and is not quoted from PBL. The summary says the worse outlook is partly due to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and to revised estimates of past emissions.
How big is the emissions gap?
The gap is the difference between where emissions are heading and where they would need to be. The summary gives the cuts needed on a pathway that overshoots 1.5°C and then returns, measured against 2025 levels: 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Full delivery of current pledges would instead give cuts of 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035. By our own arithmetic, that leaves a shortfall of about 10 to 13 percentage points in 2030 and about 30 to 34 percentage points in 2035. The page itself does not state those differences.
Is 1.5°C still possible?
The PBL summary says global temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C. Michel den Elzen of PBL is quoted: ‘Unfortunately we find that the target of 1.5 °C with limited overshoot is no longer possible.’ The page says deep and fast cuts are needed to limit the overshoot and to return to 1.5°C by 2100 with a 50% chance. In the lowest-overshoot scenario, temperature peaks at 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century. Our article on climate tipping points explains why the size and length of an overshoot matter.
What would getting back to 1.5°C require?
The pathway requires removing and permanently storing roughly 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide this century. The summary says that equals eight years of global CO2 emissions at 2024 levels. By our own arithmetic, that implies about 40 gigatons per year in 2024, which is a calculation and not a figure the page states. The page adds that every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C. Our article on global CO2 emissions covers the annual totals.
What is going right?
The summary reports that renewable technologies have grown faster than projected since the Paris Agreement. Renewable capacity grew three times faster than anticipated, and solar photovoltaic build-out seven times faster. With added policy, continuing these trends could triple renewable capacity by 2030. Den Elzen is quoted as saying the growth rate of renewable technologies has surprised many. Our article on the renewables record covers recent capacity additions.
How does this connect to current temperatures?
The Emissions Gap Report looks forward, while observations look back. Our article on record heat in 2026 covers what has been measured this year, and our entry on climate change gives the wider background. The two are separate lines of evidence and should not be mixed. A projection of 2.8°C refers to the end of the century under stated policy assumptions, not to a temperature expected soon.
How to read the numbers
Three details help readers avoid common mistakes. First, the three warming figures are scenarios, not forecasts, because each assumes a different level of policy delivery. Second, the reductions are measured relative to 2025 emissions, so an 18% cut by 2030 means emissions five years later are 18% below the 2025 level. Third, the overshoot pathway allows temperature to pass 1.5°C and then come back down, which depends on removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Those removal volumes are large, as the 320 gigaton figure shows, and the summary does not say how they would be achieved.
Glossary
- Emissions gap: the difference between projected emissions and the level consistent with a temperature goal
- NDC: a national pledge to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement
- Overshoot: temporarily exceeding a temperature limit before returning below it
- Net zero: balancing emissions with removals so that net additions stop
- Gigaton (Gt): one billion metric tons
These definitions are general explanations and are not quoted from the report summary.
What is not covered here?
The PBL page gives no emissions totals in gigatons of CO2 equivalent and does not mention the G20. We did not open the full UNEP report, so those details are left out. Readers who need them should consult UNEP’s report directly.
Key facts at a glance
- Warming under current policies: 2.8°C this century
- Warming if all NDCs are delivered: 2.6°C
- Cuts needed by 2035 on the overshoot pathway: 45% below 2025
- Cuts from full NDC delivery by 2035: 11 to 15%
- Carbon dioxide removal needed: about 320 gigatons
Frequently asked questions
What is the Emissions Gap Report?
A UNEP report that compares projected emissions with the levels needed to meet temperature goals.
What warming does it project?
2.8°C under current policies and 2.6°C if all pledges are delivered, per the PBL summary.
Is the 1.5°C target dead?
PBL says limiting warming to 1.5°C with limited overshoot is no longer possible, but returning below it by 2100 remains possible with deep cuts.
Who published the summary used here?
PBL, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, on October 21, 2026.