A tipping point is a threshold beyond which part of the Earth system changes abruptly or irreversibly. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, released on October 10, 2025 ahead of the COP30 climate summit, argues that one has now been crossed. It was produced by the University of Exeter and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, with WWF and international partners, and more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions in 23 countries contributed.
What is a tipping point?
The report describes Earth system tipping points as abrupt, irreversible changes that pose a different kind of threat from other environmental challenges. It says current policies and decision-making are not adequate to respond to them. The National Oceanography Centre (NOC), whose scientists contributed, summarized the report on its news page, and that summary is our main source.
Which tipping point has been reached?
The report says the first Earth system tipping point has been reached, with widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs now underway. Global warming is about 1.4 degrees Celsius, and reefs are passing their thermal tipping point, with a central estimate of 1.2 degrees (range 1 to 1.5 degrees). The report says that even if warming stabilizes at 1.5 degrees, reefs are virtually certain, with over 99 percent probability, to tip. Reefs on any meaningful scale would be lost unless global temperature returns toward 1 degree or below, although fragments may survive with conservation action that reduces other stressors such as overfishing and pollution. Warm-water reefs support nearly a billion people and about a quarter of all marine life. See our entry on the coral reef and our report on the fourth global coral bleaching event.
What other tipping points are of concern?
- Ice sheets: melting of polar ice sheets, and the NOC scientists said the decline of Arctic winter sea ice is a greater concern as a potential tipping point than in the previous assessment
- Amazon: dieback of the Amazon rainforest
- Atlantic circulation: collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is possible below 2 degrees of warming
- North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre: a case study to which the NOC contributed
The impacts of an Atlantic circulation collapse would include much harsher winters in northwest Europe, disrupted West African and Indian monsoons, and lower agricultural yields. A collapse of the Subpolar Gyre would affect UK agriculture and severe weather. Our Arctic Report Card article covers the sea ice record.
Are there positive tipping points?
Yes. The report argues that tipping points can work in favor of climate action too. Solar photovoltaic and wind power have already crossed positive tipping points globally, and electric vehicles, battery storage and heat pumps have crossed them in leading markets. Goods transport and green steel, hydrogen and ammonia are approaching them, and Brazil is cited as having strong potential for green steel, hydrogen and ammonia. Our articles on the 2025 renewable energy capacity record and the Global EV Outlook cover two of these technologies.
What does the report recommend?
- Minimize temperature overshoot above 1.5 degrees, including the peak temperature, the duration of overshoot and the time taken to return
- Accelerate emissions cuts and scale up carbon dioxide removal
- Include tipping risks in risk assessments, adaptation policy, loss and damage mechanisms and human rights litigation
What did the authors say?
Professor Tim Lenton of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter said that only a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can tip the world’s trajectory. Dr Mike Barrett, WWF-UK’s chief scientific adviser and a co-author, called the findings incredibly alarming. The NOC scientists said the UK should start a national review of adaptation strategies and stress-test its food supply chains.
How to read the report
Three cautions apply. First, a tipping point in this report is a scientific concept with uncertainty ranges, such as the 1 to 1.5 degree range for reefs. Second, the report is an assessment prepared with a conservation organization as a partner, so readers who want an independent check can compare it with the underlying studies. Third, we rely on the NOC summary and not on the full report. Our own reading is that the claim about corals is the most specific and the most testable of the report’s findings.
Key figures at a glance
- Release date: October 10, 2025
- Contributors: more than 160 scientists, 87 institutions, 23 countries
- Reef tipping point: central estimate 1.2 degrees Celsius (range 1 to 1.5)
- Warming today: about 1.4 degrees Celsius
- Reefs support: nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life
Glossary: terms used here
- Tipping point: a threshold beyond which a system shifts to a different state, often abruptly or irreversibly
- Overshoot: temporarily exceeding a temperature target before returning below it
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): the system of Atlantic Ocean currents that carries heat northward
- Carbon dioxide removal: methods that take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere
- Positive tipping point: a threshold beyond which a clean technology or behavior spreads rapidly
- Dieback: a large-scale loss of vegetation
These definitions are general ones and are not quoted from the NOC summary.
Taken together, these recommendations tie the tipping point question to the same emissions and overshoot questions that govern the wider climate debate, which is why the report was timed for COP30.
Key dates
- October 10, 2025: the Global Tipping Points Report 2025 is released
- November 2025: COP30, which the report was timed to inform
Frequently asked questions
Has a climate tipping point been crossed?
The report says yes, for warm-water coral reefs, and says widespread coral mortality is under way.
Can reefs recover?
The report says reefs on any meaningful scale would be lost unless temperature returns toward 1 degree or below, though fragments may survive.
Which tipping points are next?
The report discusses ice sheets, the Amazon and the Atlantic circulation as concerns.