Child mortality, the share of children who die before their fifth birthday, is one of the most closely tracked measures of human development. It has fallen in every world region since 1950. Our World in Data, using the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, published the latest overview in October 2026. This article summarizes it.
How much has child mortality fallen?
In 1950, almost one in four children worldwide died before their fifth birthday. The global average has now fallen to 3.5 percent, according to a 2025 figure. By our own arithmetic, that is a decline by a factor of about seven. About 4.7 million children under five died in 2025, which is roughly 13,000 per day. The 2024 and 2025 figures are projections based on the United Nations medium scenario, so they will be revised as survey data arrive.
How do regions compare?
In Africa in 1950, one in three children died before turning five. Since then, child mortality has fallen about five-fold in Africa and Oceania, about ten-fold in Asia, and about 27-fold in Europe. Africa now has the highest rate and Northern America the lowest, according to the chart description. The page gives regional values only in a chart, so we do not quote exact present-day rates for each region.
- Africa and Oceania: about five-fold decline
- Asia: about ten-fold decline
- Europe: about 27-fold decline
Why does a fall of five-fold still leave a gap?
A fold change depends on the starting level. Africa began 1950 at a much higher rate than Europe, so a five-fold decline there still leaves a higher rate than a 27-fold decline from a lower starting point. The numbers show both progress and a continuing gap. Our World in Data states that the progress is far from finished, given the millions of child deaths still occurring.
What drives the decline?
The Our World in Data page reports the trend and does not itemize the causes. In general terms, public health measures such as vaccines, sanitation, nutrition and access to health care are widely credited, and the World Health Organization publishes guidance on many of them. This is a general statement and not a finding of the source we used.
How is it linked to population change?
Falling child mortality is closely tied to demographic change. Fewer child deaths are generally followed over time by lower birth rates, a pattern demographers study through the total fertility rate. Falling mortality also raises life expectancy at birth, since early deaths weigh heavily on the average. Our article on the world population peak explains how the United Nations projects these trends.
What do the UN’s 2026 Sustainable Development Goals findings add?
The UN’s SDG Report 2026 key messages state that 134 countries have met the child mortality target. That figure counts countries meeting a specific goal and is a different measure from the global average above. It shows that national progress has been widespread, though the report also warns that many other targets are off track.
Why track this measure?
Demographers and public health agencies use under-five mortality as a headline indicator because it summarizes conditions that affect many aspects of child survival at once. This is a general reason and is not stated in the Our World in Data page. It explains why the measure appears in international goals, including the Sustainable Development Goals that the UN reports on each year.
How to read the numbers
Three cautions apply. First, recent years are modeled, not counted, in many countries. Second, a global average hides large differences between and within countries. Third, a rate is not the same as a count: the rate fell sharply while the population grew, so the number of deaths fell less than the rate did. That last point is a general demographic one and not from the source.
Key figures at a glance
- 1950 global rate: almost one in four children
- 1950 rate in Africa: one in three children
- 2025 global rate: 3.5 percent (projection)
- 2025 deaths under age five: about 4.7 million, or roughly 13,000 a day
- Countries meeting the child mortality target: 134 (UN SDG Report 2026)
Glossary: terms used here
- Child mortality rate: the share of children who die before their fifth birthday, also called the under-five mortality rate
- World Population Prospects: the United Nations Population Division’s regularly updated estimates and projections of population and demographic indicators
- Medium scenario: the central projection in the World Population Prospects, which sits between higher and lower assumptions
- Fold change: a ratio, where a ten-fold decline means the rate is one tenth of its earlier level
The definitions above are general ones and are not quoted from the Our World in Data page.
What the data cannot show
A global average cannot show which children are most at risk, or why. The Our World in Data page does not break the numbers down by country, income or cause, and we do not infer those details. It also treats recent years as projections, so the 2025 figures should be read as estimates. Our own reading is that the long-run decline is the firm result, and the exact 2025 numbers are the softer one.
Frequently asked questions
What is the child mortality rate today?
About 3.5 percent globally in 2025, a projection from the UN World Population Prospects 2024.
How many children die each year?
About 4.7 million under age five in 2025, or roughly 13,000 per day.
Which region improved the most?
Europe, with a fall of about 27-fold since 1950, though every region improved.
What does a ten-fold decline mean?
That the rate is one tenth of what it was, as in Asia since 1950.
Are the 2025 numbers final?
No. The 2024 and 2025 figures are projections from the UN medium scenario and will be revised.
What was the rate in 1950?
Almost one in four children worldwide, and one in three in Africa.