NASA’s Earth Observatory reports that satellite surveys now estimate hundreds of thousands of emperor penguins in 66 colonies around Antarctica, and that decades of Landsat images are revealing how those colonies move and change. The story also notes that Antarctic sea ice has declined since 2016 and that some models project the species could disappear by 2100. This article on emperor penguins from space summarizes NASA’s account, the sea ice context and the conservation listings it mentions.
How do satellites find penguins?
Emperor penguins breed on sea ice, and their droppings stain the ice brown, which satellites can see. NASA says recent satellite surveys estimate hundreds of thousands of birds across 66 colonies. Landsat has imaged Antarctica continuously since the early 1980s, which gives scientists a long record. The staining method is a general fact about how colonies are detected from space and is not spelled out in the excerpt we used.
What do old images reveal?
NASA reports that a University of Freiburg study found 18 colonies had existed an average of 17 years before their first identification. In other words, penguins were there long before anyone noticed them. The Smyley Island colony in the Bellingshausen Sea has about 6,000 birds and dates to at least 1989, about two decades earlier than previously known. Landsat first imaged the SANAE colony in 1984. A 2011 calving event forced it to relocate 11 kilometers (7 miles) south, and part of the group returned to its original site in 2016.
What does a 40-year record show?
A study led by Grant Macdonald examined nearly 40 years of observations for three colonies: Astrid, Mertz and SANAE. NASA’s excerpt does not report the study’s conclusions in numbers, so we do not give any. It does stress that colonies are not fixed: they can move when the ice they sit on changes.
What is happening to the sea ice?
According to NASA, Antarctic sea ice was relatively stable from the late 1970s to 2015 but has declined since 2016. Sea ice cover hit a record low in 2022, and researchers reported catastrophic breeding failures among colonies in the Bellingshausen Sea. Landfast ice, which is sea ice attached to the coast, has declined in West Antarctica and the Weddell Sea but trended upward in the Bellingshausen Sea and East Antarctica. Our article on Antarctic sea ice in 2026 gives this year’s numbers.
What are the conservation listings?
NASA says the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed emperor penguins as threatened in 2022, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them as endangered in 2026. Some models project the species could disappear by 2100. These are projections, which depend on assumptions about future warming and ice, and not forecasts of certain loss.
How to read the numbers
By our own arithmetic, 6,000 birds in one colony out of hundreds of thousands in 66 colonies suggests colonies are very uneven in size. The average of 17 years before first identification applies to 18 colonies, not all 66. Stable ice from the late 1970s to 2015 spans about 37 years, followed by a decline of about a decade. Smyley Island’s 1989 date is 37 years before 2026. These calculations are ours and not NASA statements.
Why is baseline information limited?
Michelle LaRue, a wildlife ecologist at the University of Canterbury, said there is little baseline information for what is normal for most of these colonies. Without a baseline, it is hard to tell whether a change is part of normal variation or a new trend. That is why satellite archives matter, since they supply the baseline that field surveys could not.
What are the limits of satellite counting?
Satellites see colonies, not individual birds, so counts are estimates built from the size of the stained area and assumptions about density. Clouds and darkness limit viewing. These are general limits and are not stated in the excerpt. NASA’s own wording is estimates, which signals that numbers carry uncertainty.
What should readers watch for next?
Satellite surveys are repeated, so counts and colony locations will be updated as new images arrive. The IUCN listing is a status assessment, and NASA’s page does not say what policy steps follow. Readers should watch for the Antarctic ice figures each year, because the breeding success of colonies depends on stable ice during the months when chicks are raised. The excerpt does not give those months, so we leave them out.
How does it connect to other coverage?
Sea ice loss is linked to wider changes at the poles. Our report on glacier loss in 2025 covers ice lost from the world’s glaciers, and our summary of the Global Tipping Points Report 2025 covers systems that may shift abruptly. Our article on Antarctic sea ice in 2026 covers the latest maximum. Together, these show why the fate of a single species ties to large-scale ice trends.
Related reading: IUCN Red List: Emperor Penguin and Antarctic Fur Seal Now Endangered, Elephant Seal Vulnerable.
Related reading: eBird: How Birdwatchers' Sightings Became a Global Science Tool.
Glossary
- Colony: a group of penguins that breed together at one site
- Landfast ice: sea ice that is attached to the coast or the seabed
- Calving: the breaking of ice from a glacier or ice shelf
- Landsat: a series of Earth-observing satellites run by NASA and USGS
- Baseline: a reference measure of normal conditions
These definitions are general explanations and are not quoted from NASA.
What is not covered here?
NASA’s excerpt does not give a precise global population, the findings of the Macdonald study in numbers or the models behind the 2100 projection. We have not added them.
Key facts at a glance
- Colonies: 66, with hundreds of thousands of birds by satellite estimate
- Landsat record: since the early 1980s
- Sea ice: stable to 2015, declining since 2016, record low in 2022
- Listings: threatened in the United States in 2022, endangered by the IUCN in 2026
- Projection: some models show disappearance by 2100
Frequently asked questions
Can satellites really see penguins?
They see colony stains on the ice, from which scientists estimate numbers.
Why do colonies move?
Changes in the ice they breed on, such as calving, can force them to relocate.
Are emperor penguins extinct soon?
No. Some models project disappearance by 2100, but that is a projection.
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