The U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 estimates world nickel mine production in 2025 at 3.9 million metric tons, with Indonesia alone producing about 2.6 million. The USGS also reports that the global primary nickel market has been in surplus since 2022 and that the 2025 average price fell about 11% to $15,000 per metric ton. This article on nickel in 2025 summarizes the USGS nickel chapter, explains the main numbers and flags what the chapter does not say.
Who mines nickel?
The USGS table gives 2025 estimated mine production, in metric tons of nickel content:
- Indonesia: 2,600,000
- Philippines: 270,000
- Russia: 200,000
- Canada: 140,000
- New Caledonia: 140,000
- China: 120,000
- Brazil: 70,000
- Australia: 45,000
- United States: 10,000
- Other countries: 290,000
The world total is 3,900,000 metric tons. By our own arithmetic, Indonesia accounts for about 67% of that total, since 2.6 million divided by 3.9 million is about two thirds.
What are the reserves?
The USGS puts world reserves above 140 million metric tons. Indonesia’s reserves are listed at 62 million, which by our arithmetic is about 44% of the world total. The table also lists Brazil at 16 million, Russia at 8.3 million, New Caledonia at 7.1 million, the Philippines at 4.8 million, China at 4.4 million and Canada at 2.2 million. We omit the Australian line because the text we could read for it was garbled.
What is the price and import reliance?
The USGS estimates the 2025 London Metal Exchange cash average at $15,000 per metric ton, or $6.90 per pound, about 11% lower than in 2024. U.S. net import reliance was 41% of apparent consumption in 2025. The USGS notes that excluding scrap, reliance would be nearly 100%. Apparent consumption means production plus imports minus exports and stock changes, a general definition.
What is nickel used for?
Alloys and steels led U.S. primary nickel use, followed by electroplating and other uses such as catalysts and chemicals. Stainless and alloy steel plus nickel-containing alloys typically account for more than 85% of U.S. consumption.
Why is the market in surplus?
The USGS says the global primary nickel market has been in surplus since 2022. Its estimated surpluses are 98,500 metric tons in 2022, 170,000 in 2023, 182,000 in 2024 and 189,000 for the first nine months of 2025, against 107,000 in the same period of 2024. Global mine output rose about 5% in 2025. Indonesia increased about 13%, and Canada and New Caledonia also rose, while Australia fell about 54% and the Philippines about 24%.
How to read the numbers
A surplus means supply exceeded demand, which tends to push prices down, and that matches the 11% price decline. By our own arithmetic, the nine-month 2025 surplus of 189,000 tons was already above the full-year 2024 figure of 182,000. Falling output in Australia and the Philippines did not offset growth in Indonesia. These readings are ours; the USGS does not state causes for the surplus beyond giving the numbers.
What policy events does the USGS note?
Palawan Province in the Philippines announced a 50-year ban on new mining permits, which does not affect existing operations. In the United States, Executive Order 14285 called for developing seabed minerals, and several companies applied to explore nickel-bearing seabed regions. Eagle Mine in Michigan produced about 10,000 tons of nickel in concentrate in 2025, exported to smelters in Canada and overseas. The Nikolai project in Alaska and the NorthMet project in Minnesota were designated Federal Transparency Projects, and the Tamarack project in Minnesota is advancing a feasibility study. The Department of Energy holds about 9,700 tons of radiologically contaminated nickel at Paducah, Kentucky.
How does nickel connect to other minerals?
Nickel is part of the same supply-chain story as other metals. Our article on copper in 2025 covers the USGS view of copper prices and imports, and our report on graphite in 2025 shows how battery supply chains rely on a few countries. Our summary of lithium in 2025 and the guide to rare earth elements cover two more. Each shows a different mix of concentration and price movement.
Why does concentration matter?
When one country supplies about two thirds of a metal, changes in that country’s policy, weather or investment can move the whole market. The USGS table makes the concentration visible, but its chapter does not predict how Indonesia will behave. A general lesson from commodity markets is that concentrated supply raises risk for buyers, and that is why governments track the numbers. We offer that as a general point and not as a USGS conclusion.
How do mine production and reserves differ?
Mine production is what was dug up in one year. Reserves are what could be extracted economically at current prices and technology. A country can have large reserves and small production, as Brazil does in the table, or the reverse. Reserves also change as prices and methods change, so they are not a fixed stock. Readers should not read the reserve figures as a countdown to exhaustion.
What should readers watch for next?
The USGS chapter ends with estimates for 2025, so the next test is whether the surplus continues in 2026 and how Indonesia’s share changes. The Philippine permit ban affects only new permits, so its effect would appear slowly. Readers should watch the next edition of the summaries for revised figures, since USGS estimates are updated as data arrive.
Related reading: U.S. Mineral Production Hits $112 Billion in USGS 2026 Summaries.
Glossary
- Mine production: the nickel content of ore mined in a year
- Reserves: resources that can be mined economically with current technology and prices
- Apparent consumption: production plus imports minus exports and stock changes
- Net import reliance: the share of consumption met by net imports
- London Metal Exchange: a major market where metal prices are set
These definitions are general explanations and are not quoted from the USGS.
What is not covered here?
We did not use the USGS statistics on refined nickel production or the world price forecast, and we did not read other chapters of the report. The Australian reserve figure is omitted because the text was unclear.
Key facts at a glance
- World mine production, 2025 estimate: 3.9 million metric tons
- Indonesia: about 2.6 million tons, roughly two thirds
- Price: $15,000 per metric ton, about 11% lower than 2024
- U.S. net import reliance: 41%
- Market: in surplus since 2022
Frequently asked questions
Who is the largest producer?
Indonesia, at about 2.6 million metric tons in 2025.
Why did the price fall?
The USGS reports a market surplus since 2022 and a 2025 average about 11% lower than 2024.
What is nickel mostly used for?
Stainless and alloy steels and nickel-containing alloys.
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